On the estimation of non linear functions in stochastic volatility models

Abstract

This paper focuses on the inference of suitable generally non linear functions in stochastic volatility models. In this context, in order to estimate the variance of the proposed estimators, a moving block bootstrap (MBB) approach is suggested and discussed. Under mild assumptions, we show that the MBB procedure is weakly consistent. Moreover, a methodology to choose the optimal length block in the MBB is proposed. Some examples and simulations on the model are also made to show the performance of the proposed procedure.     

Salutogenic qualities of midwifery care: A best-fit framework synthesis

BackgroundAlthough midwifery care is wellness-based and promotes normal physiology, it exists within a medical model that focuses on risk aversion and disease prevention. Salutogenic theory could provide an alternative approach to midwifery care, supporting health-promoting factors, rather than solely avoiding adverse events.AimsThe aim of this study was to explore women’s experiences of their midwifery care and identify salutogenic aspects of midwifery care.MethodsBest-fit framework synthesis was used to analyse 349 quotes about women’s experiences of midwifery care from 31 qualitative studies in ten high-income countries. Key salutogenic concepts of comprehensibility, manageability and meaningfulness were used as the basis for coding, and thematic analysis was used to expand and clarify the framework to best fit the data.FindingsDefinitions for the salutogenic aspects of midwifery care were developed. Comprehensibility (cognitive aspects of health): ways that midwives help women increase predictability and preparation during childbearing through apredictable caregiver, a predictable system and preparation for an unpredictable experience. Manageability (behavioural aspects of health): ways that midwives enhance and support a woman’s internal resilience, adding extra support when needed, and strengthen women’s external resources through connections to family, community and specialist care. Meaningfulness (emotional/spiritual aspects of health): ways that midwives encourage the commitment and engagement of childbearing women by providing care through a personalised relationship, by cultivating a woman’s autonomy.ConclusionFindings of this study may be used to further research into ways that salutogenic theory can bring a health and wellness-focused agenda to midwifery policy and practice.     

Women’s experiences of decision-making and attitudes in relation to induction of labour: A survey study

BackgroundRates of induction of labour have been increasing globally to up to one in three pregnancies in many high-income countries. Although guidelines around induction, and strength of the underlying evidence, vary considerably by indication, shared decision-making is increasingly recognised as key. The aim of this study was to identify women’s mode of birth preferences and experiences of shared decision-making for induction of labour.MethodAn antenatal survey of women booked for an induction at eight Sydney hospitals was conducted. A bespoke questionnaire was created assessing women’s demographics, indication for induction, pregnancy model of care, initial birth preferences, and their experience of the decision-making process.ResultsOf 189 survey respondents (58% nulliparous), major reported reasons for induction included prolonged pregnancy (38%), diabetes (25%), and suspected fetal growth restriction (8%). Most respondents (72%) had hoped to labour spontaneously. Major findings included 19% of women not feeling like they had a choice about induction of labour, 26% not feeling adequately informed (or uncertain if informed), 17% not being given alternatives, and 30% not receiving any written information on induction of labour. Qualitative responses highlight a desire of women to be more actively involved in decision-making.ConclusionA substantial minority of women did not feel adequately informed or prepared, and indicated they were not given alternatives to induction. Suggested improvements include for face-to-face discussions to be supplemented with written information, and for shared decision-making interventions, such as the introduction of decision aids and training, to be implemented and evaluated.     

近代巴蜀诗人李士棻生卒年及别号考略

近代巴蜀诗人李士棻曾被曾国藩誉为“太白醉魂”，为曾府门下“四川三李”之一，其诗作有浓郁的巴蜀文化特色。然李氏仕宦不显，长期以来学界对其关注不足，学界近年不多的相关研究，多围绕国内所存的文献，对其诗歌创作进行艺术分析，对诗人的生平介绍多简单略过，没有严谨的考证，目前仍然很有争议。通过搜罗国内外现存典籍，综合目前所见李士棻本人著述，辅以晚清近代重要报刊《申报》和与李氏有交往的朝鲜文人文献，考证其生卒年及别号，冀为今后的相关研究解决基础问题。     

Children's experiences with an intervention aimed to prevent further physical abuse

Although many children across cultures are victims of physical abuse, few treatment models target these children and their parents. In Sweden, Combined Parent–Child Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for families at risk for child physical abuse has been successfully used according to pretreatment and posttreatment studies. However, few studies have explored how physically abused children experience treatment. This study includes 20 physically abused children aged 9–17 who completed Combined Parent–Child Cognitive Behavioural Therapy. Children had a positive overall impression of the treatment and highlighted addressing the abuse, as well as processing their experiences as particularly essential. Children described a positive transformation in their family life as a result of treatment, including violence cessation and bonding among family members. Children experienced the intervention as inclusive and child‐friendly. The implications of the promising findings are discussed.     

带工期指派的产品服务系统订单随机调度问题研究

针对由一个制造工厂和多个区域服务中心组成的服务型制造企业，研究了考虑生产时间和服务时间均具有随机性且工期可指派的产品服务系统（PSS）订单调度问题。首先以最小化订单提前、误工和工期指派费用的期望总额为目标构建问题的优化模型，然后分析目标函数近似值的最优性条件，据此提出加权最短平均生产时间排序规则，并结合该规则与插入邻域局部搜索设计了启发式算法对问题进行求解，最后通过数值仿真验证算法的可行性和有效性。研究表明，提前费用偏差对PSS订单调度与工期指派决策的影响很小，因此企业管理者无需准确估计库存费用也能制定出比较有效的PSS订单调度策略；而工期指派费用偏差对决策结果的影响非常大，因此企业管理者在决策时必须谨慎估计该项费用。     

Maternal depression and children’s false belief understanding

Children of depressed mothers show substantial social impairment, which increases their risk for developing depression. Theory of mind understanding forms the basis of social functioning, and is impaired in children of currently depressed mothers. Models of risk emphasize that a history of any maternal depression confers risk to later psychopathology. Therefore, we tested a novel model of the impact of lifetime maternal depression on children’s false belief understanding that accounts for three primary factors that scaffold this understanding: maternal mental state talk, and children’s executive functioning and language abilities. Children aged 41–48 months with a maternal lifetime history of major depressive disorder (MDD; n = 19) performed significantly more poorly on the false belief battery compared to those without (n = 44). Further, lower levels of mental state talk, child executive functioning, and child language ability were significantly associated with poorer false belief scores. However, the relation between maternal MDD and children’s false belief performance was not mediated by any of these factors. These results indicate that maternal depression predicts poorer false belief understanding independently of other crucial scaffolding variables, and may be a social cognitive mechanism underlying the intergenerational transmission of depression.     

The impact of the European Youth Guarantee on active labour market policies: A convergence analysis

The European Union’s (EU) Youth Guarantee aims to improve the labour market situation of young people. Rather than prescribing a uniform policy model, it acknowledges that supportive measures need to align with national, regional and local circumstances. It thus seeks to promote mutual policy learning through the open method of coordination. As an innovative measure, the EU has deployed funding programmes to support the domestic measures related to the Youth Guarantee. We therefore examined in this study whether this mix of recommendations and financial incentives has entailed a convergence of member state policies. Our analysis of policy outputs for the period 2007?2014 yields a mixed empirical picture. There is catching‐up convergence regarding policies’ sectoral coverage but increasing divergence concerning the number of adopted policy instruments. The first two years of financial incentives did not produce any effect on enhancing policy experimentation among less active member states. We offer an optimistic and a pessimistic interpretation of these findings.     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.